Presidential Campaign Rhetoric

Notes on "Obama Coalition"

2011-11-28T06:56:00.001-08:00

November 27, 2011, 11:34 PM

The Future of the Obama Coalition

For decades, Democrats have suffered continuous and increasingly severe losses among white voters. But preparations by Democratic operatives for the 2012 election make it clear for the first time that the party will explicitly abandon the white working class.

All pretence of trying to win a majority of the white working class has been effectively jettisoned in favor of cementing a center-left coalition made up, on the one hand, of voters who have gotten ahead on the basis of educational attainment — professors, artists, designers, editors, human resources managers, lawyers, librarians, social workers, teachers and therapists — and a second, substantial constituency of lower-income voters who are disproportionately African-American and Hispanic.

It is instructive to trace the evolution of a political strategy based on securing this coalition in the writings and comments, over time, of such Democratic analysts as Stanley Greenberg and Ruy Teixeira. Both men were initially determined to win back the white working-class majority, but both currently advocate a revised Democratic alliance in which whites without college degrees are effectively replaced by well-educated socially liberal whites in alliance with the growing ranks of less affluent minority voters, especially Hispanics.

The 2012 approach treats white voters without college degrees as an unattainable cohort. The Democratic goal with these voters is to keep Republican winning margins to manageable levels, in the 12 to 15 percent range, as opposed to the 30-point margin of 2010 — a level at which even solid wins among minorities and other constituencies are not enough to produce Democratic victories.

“It’s certainly true that if you compare how things were in the early ’90s to the way they are now, there has been a significant shift in the role of the working class. You see it across all advanced industrial countries,” Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said in an interview.

In the United States, Teixeira noted, “the Republican Party has become the party of the white working class,” while in Europe, many working-class voters who had been the core of Social Democratic parties have moved over to far right parties, especially those with anti-immigration platforms.

Teixeira, writing with John Halpin, argues in “The Path to 270: Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election,” that in order to be re-elected, President Obama must keep his losses among white college graduates to the 4-point margin of 2008 (47-51). Why? Otherwise he will not be able to survive a repetition of 2010, when white working-class voters supported Republican House candidates by a record-setting margin of 63-33.

Obama’s alternative path to victory, according to Teixeira and Halpin, would be to keep his losses among all white voters at the same level John Kerry did in 2004, when he lost them by 17 points, 58-41. This would be a step backwards for Obama, who lost among all whites in 2008 by only 12 points (55-43). Obama can afford to drop to Kerry’s white margins because, between 2008 and 2012, the pro-Democratic minority share of the electorate is expected to grow by two percentage points and the white share to decline by the same amount, reflecting the changing composition of the national electorate.

The following passage from “The Path to 270” illustrates the degree to which whites without college degrees are currently cast as irrevocably lost to the Republican Party. “Heading into 2012,” Teixeira and Halpin write, one of the primary strategic questions will be:

Will the president hold sufficient support among communities of color, educated whites, Millennials, single women, and seculars and avoid a catastrophic meltdown among white working-class voters?

For his part, Greenberg, a Democratic pollster and strategist and a key adviser to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, wrote a memorandum earlier this month, together with James Carville, that makes no mention of the white working class. “Seizing the New Progressive Common Ground” describes instead a “new progressive coalition” made up of “young people, Hispanics, unmarried women, and affluent suburbanites.”

In an interview, Greenberg, speaking of white working class voters, said that in the period from the mid-1960s to the early 1990s, “we battled to get them back. They were sizeable in number and central to the base of the Democratic Party.” At the time, he added, “we didn’t know that we would never get them back, that they were alienated and dislodged.”

In his work exploring how to build a viable progressive coalition, Greenberg noted, he has become “much more interested in the affluent suburban voters than the former Reagan Democrats.” At the same time, however, he argues that Republican winning margins among white working-class voters are highly volatile and that Democrats have to push hard to minimize losses, which will not be easy. “Right now,” he cautioned, “I don’t see any signs they are moveable.”

Teixeira’s current analysis stands in sharp contrast to an article that he wrote with Joel Rogers, which appeared in the American Prospect in 1995. In “Who Deserted the Democrats in 1994?,” Teixeira and Rogers warned that between 1992 and 1994 support for Democratic House candidates had fallen by 20 points, from 57 to 37 percent among high-school-educated white men; by 15 points among white men with some college; and by 10 points among white women in both categories. A failure to reverse those numbers, Teixeira warned, would “doom Clinton’s re-election bid” in 1996.

Teixeira was by no means alone in his 1995 assessment; he was in agreement with orthodox Democratic thinking of the time. In a 1995 memo to President Clinton, Greenberg wrote that whites without college degrees were “the principal obstacle” to Clinton’s re-election and that they needed to be brought back into the fold.

In practice, or perhaps out of necessity, the Democratic Party in 2006 and 2008 chose the upscale white-downscale minority approach that proved highly successful twice, but failed miserably in 2010, and appears to have a 50-50 chance in 2012.

The outline of this strategy for 2012 was captured by Times reporters Jackie Calmes and Mark Landler a few months ago in an article tellingly titled, “Obama Charts a New Route to Re-election.” Calmes and Landler describe how Obama’s re-election campaign plans to deal with the decline in white working class support in Rust Belt states by concentrating on states with high percentages of college educated voters, including Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire.

There are plenty of critics of the tactical idea of dispensing with low-income whites, both among elected officials and party strategists. But Cliff Zukin, a professor of political science at Rutgers, puts the situation plainly. “My sense is that if the Democrats stopped fishing there, it is because there are no fish.”

“My sense is that if the Democrats stopped fishing there, it is because there are no fish.”

— Cliff Zukin

As a practical matter, the Obama campaign and, for the present, the Democratic Party, have laid to rest all consideration of reviving the coalition nurtured and cultivated by Franklin D. Roosevelt. The New Deal Coalition — which included unions, city machines, blue-collar workers, farmers, blacks, people on relief, and generally non-affluent progressive intellectuals — had the advantage of economic coherence. It received support across the board from voters of all races and religions in the bottom half of the income distribution, the very coherence the current Democratic coalition lacks.

A top priority of the less affluent wing of today’s left alliance is the strengthening of the safety net, including health care, food stamps, infant nutrition and unemployment compensation. These voters generally take the brunt of recessions and are most in need of government assistance to survive. According to recent data from the Department of Agriculture, 45.8 million people, nearly 15 percent of the population, depend on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to meet their needs for food.

The better-off wing, in contrast, puts at the top of its political agenda a cluster of rights related to self-expression, the environment, demilitarization, and, importantly, freedom from repressive norms — governing both sexual behavior and women’s role in society — that are promoted by the conservative movement.

While demographic trends suggest the continued growth of pro-Democratic constituencies and the continued decline of core Republican voters, particularly married white Christians, there is no guarantee that demography is destiny.

The political repercussions of gathering minority strength remain unknown. Calculations based on exit poll and Census data suggest that the Democratic Party will become “majority minority” shortly after 2020.

One outcome could be a stronger party of the left in national and local elections. An alternate outcome could be exacerbated intra-party conflict between whites, blacks and Hispanics — populations frequently marked by diverging material interests. Black versus brown struggles are already emerging in contests over the distribution of political power, especially during a current redistricting of city council, state legislative and congressional seats in cities like Los Angeles and Chicago.

Republican Party operatives are acutely sensitive to such tensions, hoping for opportunities to fracture the Democratic coalition, virtually assuring that neither party can safely rely on a secure path to victory over time.

Candidate Prep for Debates Discussed

2011-09-11T05:32:00.001-07:00

Presidential debate preparation guru, Bob Barnett, talks to POLITICO about presidential debates and what it really takes to get a candidate ready for the podium. Barnett has advised presidential candidates and been part of debate prep teams since 1976. In the 2008 election cycle, Barnett helped Hillary Clinton prepare for the 23 primary debates that she took part in.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/62524.html#ixzz1Xe6ZikmP

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Keys to Presidency - Lichtman Uses Formula To Predict Obama 2012 Win

2011-08-31T03:25:00.000-07:00

I have been using these "13 Keys to the Presidency" in this class for a long time, and imagine that I will use it again, especially if Obama loses.

Alfred Snider

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/08/30/never-fail-prediction-system-shows-2012-win-for-obama/

Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama
By Kase Wickman
Tuesday, August 30th, 2011 -- 10:16 am

American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades — one that President Barack Obama might have an interest in seeing Lichtman extend.

Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan, U.S. News and World Report reported. The formula that predicted Obama's 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model, described in his book The Keys to the White House, relies on 13 "keys" that gauge the performance of the sitting president's party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party's favor, the candidate they present will win.

Nine of the keys fall in Obama's favor, Lichtman said — more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman's model hasn't failed yet.

Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl," Lichtman said. "It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.”

Lecture - History of USA Presidential Campaign Rhetoric - Alfred Snider 2009

2011-06-29T03:37:00.000-07:00

This lecture starts with the first election and goes on up to the modern era. It is interesting to find out how many things about presidential campaigns are "new" and how new they are, as well as the importance of alcoholic beverages in traditional campaigning.

Next class on this subject - Spring 2013, University of Vermont.

29 April 2009 Last Day of Class

2009-04-28T14:30:00.000-07:00

I want to thank all of the students in this class for their participation in class discussions that have made each week very informative for me.

Today we will hear the oral reports by students on their rhetorical criticisms, fill out the evaluation forms and watch a special surprise video.

The video has to do with backwards masking in Barack Obama's speeches so that "Yes we can" becomes "Thank you Satan."

This has to be one of the strangest hings I have seen in a long time. I cannot embed the video but go to the link and watch and listen to it. It is especially clear when the crowd is chanting it.

Someone has too much time on their hands. I am not sure America deserves Barack Obama.

I look forward to what things will be like four years from now.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d79_1239121313

22 April 2009 New and Other Media

2009-04-22T06:25:00.000-07:00

Today is our last full day of instruction. We will look at new media and talk about how it is used along with non-traditional campaign media.

It was actually difficult to find pro-McCain new media.

Yes we can music video

Homer Simpson votes for Obama

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ

Obama-McCain Dance Off

McCain's Trophy Vice

Obama Girl

Obama Girls vs. Giuliani Girl

Obama Girl on O'Reilly

Oprah Introduces Obama

McCain Rap

Pro McCain Video - Use Your Brain, Vote McCain

Palin on Clothing

Pro-McCain March in Manhattan

Blacks Against Obama

Black Women for McCain-Palin

McCain SNL

McCain SNL Analysis

15 April 2009 Campaign Advertising

2009-04-15T08:23:00.000-07:00

Today we have some fun with some media. We review campaign advertising history, formats and then watch some fairly amazing advertisements.

TOP TWENTY PRESIDENTIAL ADVERTISEMENTS OF ALL TIME

http://www.nerve.com/dispatches/nerveeditors/20-greatest-campaign-ads-of-all-time/

And the #1 advertisement out of the historical top twenty:

And now we turn to 2008:

JOHN McCAIN FOR PRESIDENT

Ayers

Health Solutions

624787

Purpose

Not Easy

Ladies & Gentleman

The One

Stand

I am Joe

Preconditions

Fight

BARACK OBAMA

Early Videos (not Obama campaign production)

NEXT GENERATION VETERANS FOR OBAMA

SEVEN

FAT CAT

HANDS

EMBRACE

FIX THE ECONOMY

GENERAL PUNCH

NEVER

SAND DUNES

AMERICA'S LEADERSHIP

ZERO

8 April 2009 - The Vice Presidential Debate

2009-04-08T08:08:00.000-07:00

This week we talk about the effects of the debates and then we watch the VP debate in detail, as we have not heard all that much from Biden and Palin.

1 April 2009 Presidential Debates

2009-04-01T06:57:00.000-07:00

Today we will talk about the 2008 Presidential Debates. We will discuss their importance by reviewing our reading for the week, then we will view debate segments and discuss them.

First Debate - Foreign Policy & National Security

Third Debate - Domestic Policy

25 March 2009 Rhetorical Methods & Joe Biden

2009-03-25T08:23:00.000-07:00

This week we talk about:

The keys to the White House
How dramatism would apply to the campaigns
How other critical models would apply to the campaigns

We look at Joe Biden as candidate for vice president.

His announcement speech:

His acceptance speech:

Take-off on the debate
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/b81426e4ac/vp-debate-what-if-joe-biden-could-have-said-what-he-was-thinking-from-hubvids

VP Debate - What if Joe Biden could have said what he was thinking? - watch more funny videos

18 March 2009 Campaign Strategies & Sarah Palin

2009-03-18T06:02:00.000-07:00

Today we have some additional discussions ab out campaign strategy and then we consider Sarah Palin as the republican vice presidential nominee.

Readings for today:
http://www.uvm.edu/~asnider/campreadings/11_campbell_howcampaignsmatter.pdf

Palin's Accceptance Speech:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Katie Couric Interview

Greatest Hits

SNL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdDqSvJ6aHc

VP Debate

3 March 2009 Campaign Strategies

2009-03-04T07:49:00.001-08:00

Readings for this wek:
http://www.uvm.edu/%7Easnider/campreadings/9_campbell_studyingeffectsofcampaigns.pdf
http://www.uvm.edu/%7Easnider/campreadings/10_campbell_stablecontextofthecampaign.pdf

Insiders look back at crucial moments

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=282377-1

Discussion of strategies by both parties after the election.

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=282844-1

Strategies and More

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=282270-1

25 February 2009 McCain Short Speeches, Evaluating the Audience

2009-02-25T07:45:00.000-08:00

Today we have short readings from Blais and two newspaper articles. They are at
http://www.uvm.edu/~asnider/campreadings/

We will have a discussion about the relationship between the rhetoric and the audience and then we will watch and discuss some McCain videos.

His announcement speech.

His announcement on Letterman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53caXQKTs9Y

Announcing Palin

Suspends his campaign

McCain-Palin Rally attendees

Defends Obama

On Ellen

Discussion of negative advertisement

What do you think of this? Be the critic.

18 February 2009 Voters as Audience & Obama Speeches

2009-02-18T07:08:00.000-08:00

Today we will review the nature of the American electorate as receivers of persuasive campaign messages. We will take a look at the current theory for how people process and are influenced by persuasive messages, the Elaboration Likelihood Model. It is reading 6.

As always, readings are available at
http://www.uvm.edu/~asnider/campreadings/

We will also watch some Obama videos.

Here is his speech announcing his candidacy.

Iowa Caucus Victory Speech

New Hampshire Concession Speech

Live Florida Speech During Infomercial

11 February 2009 Criticism Methods & Obama Acceptance Speech

2009-02-08T11:03:00.000-08:00

Plus we will discuss various methods of rhetorical criticism.

The readings are at http://www.uvm.edu/~asnider/campreadings

The packet you need to review in advance is 5_kkc_etc_rhetpresmethod.pdf

4 February 2009 Recent Past, McCain Acceptance Speech

2009-02-04T05:10:00.000-08:00

Lecture and discussion today about recent presidential elections as well.

28 January 2009 History of Presidential Campaigns

2009-02-04T04:56:00.000-08:00

While I am away in Thailand, here is the lecture for this week.

http://www.uvm.edu/~debate/watch/prescamprhethistory09.MOV

Chase will lead the discussion on the second half of the biographies video we will watch.

See you next week.

14 January 2009 Pre-Critical Disclosure Videos

2009-01-13T09:02:00.000-08:00

We will watch these videos in class and then have a discussion about how we feel about the two candidates. The purpose is to explore our feelings and conclusions about them well before we enter the formal critical process. This will help us understand "where we are coming from" as well as our biases and suppositions.

McCain in Missouri on the economy

Obama in Ohio on the economy

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=281753-1&showVid=true

A Blog for a Class

2009-01-13T09:00:00.000-08:00

I am teaching SPCH 214 Rhetoric of Presidential Campaigns at the University of Vermont this Spring 2009.

This blog will contain links to videos as well as embedded videos that I want to share with the class. You can check them out again to get further detail or for the first time if you missed class.

Good luck!